Course of Action Development and Evaluation

This paper describes a set of procedures that will enhance the analysis, synthesis, and execution of courses of action (COA). The paper presents a set of formal methods for extending the capability of probabilistic models (influence nets) to produce rigorous mathematical models that reveal the impact of the sequence and timing of actionable events on the outcome and effects desired in a situation. By incorporating timing information, such a model can be converted to a Discrete Event System (DES) model in the form of a Colored Petri Net. The DES model, when run as a simulation, can reveal the changes in the likelihood of the desired effects over time for any timed sequence of actionable events that comprise a COA. The paper presents DES analysis techniques that can generate all of the possible sequences of probability values of the outcome given any COA without simulation. Procedures are presented to select desirable sequences from the set of all sequences and determine the temporal relationship among the actionable events that will generate a selected sequence of probability values.